Mr. Gore, Where Have All the Hurricanes Gone?
As someone who deals with statistics on a daily basis let me suggest that last year was perhaps not the year typical of a trend, but more likely an exception. It’s as though someone saw the temperature rise from 70 at 9:00 am, to 80 at noon, then predicted it would be 110 by 9:00 pm. Not every data point reflects a linear trend. (OK, I must admit that one quiet year also doesn’t refute a trend.) But I remain skeptical that we understand the fluctuations of our planetary systems well enough to separate the natural influences from the human-induced effects. I do believe it is prudent to examine the issue closely, and it certainly wouldn’t hurt to reduce carbon emissions, but I resist the hysteria. The media act as though there is uniform consensus in the scientific community. The consensus may be strong, but it is not unanimous and to dismiss the naysayers as disreputable is troubling. Some cite supposed ulterior motives, but it seems to me that motivations and biases on both sides of this discussion should be viewed skeptically. For the dire warnings of global catastrophe just watch Mr. Gore’s movie or view the evening news. For the flip side of this argument, consider globalwarming.org or skepticism.net. Only time will really tell, but at least so far this summer the hurricane cycle seems to have retreated. Regardless of our politics, let’s hope it remains a quiet storm season. Michael Previous: Get a Warrant, -- Next: Liberty versus Security. Comment from Jim: I’ve been wondering that myself. Last year’s season was a combination of a natural hurricane cycle and global warming. Gulf of Mexico waters were almost as warm as bath water, and that led to monsters such as Katrina and Rita. I still think that global warming is happening. So why no hurricanes this year? My guess is that a lot of dust has been blowing off Africa, perhaps made more desert than ever by global climate change, and that, combined with windshear, has been clobbering the storms. But the models still say that a huge horde of hurricanes will appear by September, and further, there is now a prediction of low wind shear this weekend (2006 Aug 26-27). We could get some soon. I hope not, but I am watching the tropics. Gore’s movie is full of persuasive elements, but I still think his basic argument is valid. Only peak fossil fuels will stop global warming now. Posted by Jim Aug 20, 09:27 AM # |
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